Insights into accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change

Grossmann, Igor; Rotella, Amanda; Hutcherson, Cendri A.; Sharpinskyi, Konstantyn; Varnum, Michael E. W.; Achter, Sebastian; Dhami, Mandeep K.; Guo, Xinqi Evie; Kara-Yakoubian, Mane; Mandel, David R.; Raes, Louis; Tay, Louis; Vie, Aymeric; Wagner, Lisa; Adamkovic, Matus; Arami, Arash; Arriaga, Patrícia; Bandara, Kasun; Baník, Gabriel; Bartoš, František; Baskin, Ernest; Bergmeir, Christoph; Białek, Michał; Børsting, Caroline K.; Browne, Dillon T.; Caruso, Eugene M.; Chen, Rong; Chie, Bin-Tzong; Chopik, William J.; Collins, Robert N.; Cong, Chin W.; Conway, Lucian G.; Davis, Matthew; Day, Martin V.; Dhaliwal, Nathan A.; Durham, Justin D.; Dziekan, Martyna; Elbaek, Christian T.; Shuman, Eric; Fabrykant, Marharyta; Firat, Mustafa; Fong, Geoffrey T.; Frimer, Jeremy A.; Gallegos, Jonathan M.; Goldberg, Simon B.; Gollwitzer, Anton; Goyal, Julia; Graf-Vlachy, Lorenz; Gronlund, Scott D.; Hafenbrädl, Sebastian; Hartanto, Andree; Hirshberg, Matthew J.; Hornsey, Matthew J.; Howe, Piers D. L.; Izadi, Anoosha; Jaeger, Bastian; Kačmár, Pavol; Kim, Yeun Joon; Krenzler, Ruslan; Lannin, Daniel G.; Lin, Hung-Wen; Lou, Nigel Mantou; Lua, Verity Y. Q.; Lukaszewski, Aaron W.; Ly, Albert L.; Madan, Christopher R.; Maier, Maximilian; Majeed, Nadyanna M.; March, David S.; Marsh, Abigail A.; Misiak, Michal; Myrseth, Kristian Ove R.; Napan, Jaime M.; Nicholas, Jonathan; Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos; O, Jiaqing; Otterbring, Tobias; Paruzel-Czachura, Mariola; Pauer, Shiva; Protzko, John; Raffaelli, Quentin; Ropovik, Ivan; Ross, Robert M.; Roth, Yefim; Røysamb, Espen; Schnabel, Landon; Schütz, Astrid; Seifert, Matthias; Sevincer, A. Timur; Sherman, Garrick T.; Simonsson, Otto; Sung, Ming-Chien; Tai, Chung-Ching; Talhelm, Thomas; Teachman, Bethany A.; Tetlock, Philip E.; Thomakos, Dimitrios; Tse, Dwight C. K.; Twardus, Oliver J.; Tybur, Joshua M.; Ungar, Lyle; Vandermeulen, Daan; Williams, Leighton Vaughan; Vosgerichian, Hrag A.; Wang, Qi; Wang, Ke; Whiting, Mark E.; Wollbrant, Conny E.; Yang, Tao; Yogeeswaran, Kumar; Yoon, Sangsuk; Alves, Ventura r.; Andrews-Hanna, Jessica R.; Bloom, Paul A.; Boyles, Anthony; Charis, Loo; Choi, Mingyeong; Darling-Hammond, Sean; Ferguson, Zoe E.; Kaiser, Cheryl R.; Karg, Simon T.; Ortega, Alberto López; Mahoney, Lori; Marsh, Melvin S.; Martinie, Marcellin F. R. C.; Michaels, Eli K.; Millroth, Philip; Naqvi, Jeanean B.; Ng, Weiting; Rutledge, Robb B.; Slattery, Peter; Smiley, Adam H.; Strijbis, Oliver; Sznycer, Daniel; Tsukayama, Eli; van Loon, Austin; Voelkel, Jan G.; Wienk, Margaux N. A.; Wilkening, Tom; The Forecasting Collaborative,

doi:10.31234/osf.io/wdxsb

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Insights into accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change

Grossmann, I., Rotella, A., Hutcherson, C. A., Sharpinskyi, K., Varnum, M. E. W., Achter, S., et al. (2022). Insights into accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change. PsyArXiv, September 12, 2022.

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Creators:
Grossmann, Igor, Author
Rotella, Amanda, Author
Hutcherson, Cendri A., Author
Sharpinskyi, Konstantyn, Author
Varnum, Michael E. W., Author
Achter, Sebastian, Author
Dhami, Mandeep K., Author
Guo, Xinqi Evie, Author
Kara-Yakoubian, Mane, Author
Mandel, David R., Author
Raes, Louis, Author
Tay, Louis, Author
Vie, Aymeric, Author
Wagner, Lisa, Author
Adamkovic, Matus, Author
Arami, Arash, Author
Arriaga, Patrícia, Author
Bandara, Kasun, Author
Baník, Gabriel, Author
Bartoš, František, Author
Baskin, Ernest, AuthorBergmeir, Christoph, AuthorBiałek, Michał, AuthorBørsting, Caroline K., AuthorBrowne, Dillon T., AuthorCaruso, Eugene M., AuthorChen, Rong, AuthorChie, Bin-Tzong, AuthorChopik, William J., AuthorCollins, Robert N., AuthorCong, Chin W., AuthorConway, Lucian G., AuthorDavis, Matthew, AuthorDay, Martin V., AuthorDhaliwal, Nathan A., AuthorDurham, Justin D., AuthorDziekan, Martyna, AuthorElbaek, Christian T., AuthorShuman, Eric, AuthorFabrykant, Marharyta, AuthorFirat, Mustafa, AuthorFong, Geoffrey T., AuthorFrimer, Jeremy A., AuthorGallegos, Jonathan M., AuthorGoldberg, Simon B., AuthorGollwitzer, Anton¹, Author Goyal, Julia, AuthorGraf-Vlachy, Lorenz, AuthorGronlund, Scott D., AuthorHafenbrädl, Sebastian, AuthorHartanto, Andree, AuthorHirshberg, Matthew J., AuthorHornsey, Matthew J., AuthorHowe, Piers D. L., AuthorIzadi, Anoosha, AuthorJaeger, Bastian, AuthorKačmár, Pavol, AuthorKim, Yeun Joon, AuthorKrenzler, Ruslan, AuthorLannin, Daniel G., AuthorLin, Hung-Wen, AuthorLou, Nigel Mantou, AuthorLua, Verity Y. Q., AuthorLukaszewski, Aaron W., AuthorLy, Albert L., AuthorMadan, Christopher R., AuthorMaier, Maximilian, AuthorMajeed, Nadyanna M., AuthorMarch, David S., AuthorMarsh, Abigail A., AuthorMisiak, Michal, AuthorMyrseth, Kristian Ove R., AuthorNapan, Jaime M., AuthorNicholas, Jonathan, AuthorNikolopoulos, Konstantinos, AuthorO, Jiaqing, AuthorOtterbring, Tobias, AuthorParuzel-Czachura, Mariola, AuthorPauer, Shiva, AuthorProtzko, John, AuthorRaffaelli, Quentin, AuthorRopovik, Ivan, AuthorRoss, Robert M., AuthorRoth, Yefim, AuthorRøysamb, Espen, AuthorSchnabel, Landon, AuthorSchütz, Astrid, AuthorSeifert, Matthias, AuthorSevincer, A. Timur, AuthorSherman, Garrick T., AuthorSimonsson, Otto, AuthorSung, Ming-Chien, AuthorTai, Chung-Ching, AuthorTalhelm, Thomas, AuthorTeachman, Bethany A., AuthorTetlock, Philip E., AuthorThomakos, Dimitrios, AuthorTse, Dwight C. K., AuthorTwardus, Oliver J., AuthorTybur, Joshua M., AuthorUngar, Lyle, AuthorVandermeulen, Daan, AuthorWilliams, Leighton Vaughan, AuthorVosgerichian, Hrag A., AuthorWang, Qi, AuthorWang, Ke, AuthorWhiting, Mark E., AuthorWollbrant, Conny E., AuthorYang, Tao, AuthorYogeeswaran, Kumar, AuthorYoon, Sangsuk, AuthorAlves, Ventura r., AuthorAndrews-Hanna, Jessica R., AuthorBloom, Paul A., AuthorBoyles, Anthony, AuthorCharis, Loo, AuthorChoi, Mingyeong, AuthorDarling-Hammond, Sean, AuthorFerguson, Zoe E., AuthorKaiser, Cheryl R., AuthorKarg, Simon T., AuthorOrtega, Alberto López, AuthorMahoney, Lori, AuthorMarsh, Melvin S., AuthorMartinie, Marcellin F. R. C., AuthorMichaels, Eli K., AuthorMillroth, Philip, AuthorNaqvi, Jeanean B., AuthorNg, Weiting, AuthorRutledge, Robb B., AuthorSlattery, Peter, AuthorSmiley, Adam H., AuthorStrijbis, Oliver, AuthorSznycer, Daniel, AuthorTsukayama, Eli, Authorvan Loon, Austin, AuthorVoelkel, Jan G., AuthorWienk, Margaux N. A., AuthorWilkening, Tom, AuthorThe Forecasting Collaborative, Author more..

Affiliations:
1Center for Adaptive Rationality, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Max Planck Society, ou_2074286

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Language(s): eng - English

Dates: Date issued: 2022

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Identifiers: DOI: 10.31234/osf.io/wdxsb

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Title: PsyArXiv

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Pages: - Volume / Issue: - Sequence Number: September 12, 2022 Start / End Page: - Identifier: -