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Free keywords:
Atmospheric general circulation models; Atmospheric general-circulation model; Cooling trends; Ensemble simulation; Eurasia; Eurasia cooling; Inter-decadal pacific oscillations; Internal variability; Standard deviation; Surface air temperatures, Earth atmosphere, air temperature; air-sea interaction; atmosphere-ocean coupling; atmospheric general circulation model; cooling; decadal variation; phase transition; seasonal variation, Eurasia; Pacific Ocean
Abstract:
Large ensemble simulations with six atmospheric general circulation models involved are utilized to verify the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) impacts on the trend of Eurasian winter surface air temperatures (SAT) during 1998-2013, a period characterized by the prominent Eurasia cooling (EC). In our simulations, IPO brings a cooling trend over west-central Eurasia in 1998-2013, about a quarter of the observed EC in that area. The cooling is associated with the phase transition of the IPO to a strong negative. However, the standard deviation of the area-averaged SAT trends in the west EC region among ensembles, driven by internal variability intrinsic due to the atmosphere and land, is more than three times the isolated IPO impacts, which can shadow the modulation of the IPO on the west Eurasia winter climate. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
