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Abstract:
According to the final report of the European Union OMC expert group on strengthening cultural heritage resilience for anthropogenic climate change, the impacts of climate change, particularly extreme weather events, on cultural heritage in Europe have become increasingly evident in recent years and are progressing at an unprecedented speed and scale. Archaeological sites, museum collections, and historical buildings and structures are affected, among others, by rising temperatures or by heavy storms and precipitation events. Deep scientific knowledge about future climate projections is required to develop appropriate preservation strategies and measures to protect and adapt cultural heritage. In this paper we present the first set of results of the KERES project. The project focuses on the impacts of future extreme climate events on the built heritage and historic gardens. An ensemble of climate simulations is used to analyze changes in both climatology and extreme events for several climate variables at two cultural heritage sites in Germany. In this study, a methodology was developed to guide climate scientists on how to better tailor climate information for the needs of stakeholders in the cultural heritage sector. It would help the stakeholders to integrate the results of climate projections into the prevention and emergency management, in particular for the risk assessment of extreme events. The effects of interpolation from a model grid to a location of cultural heritage site and advantages of an ensemble approach have been demonstrated in the study
