非表示:
キーワード:
Sea-level change, Regional sea-level change, Sea-level projections, Ice
sheets, Glaciers, Terrestrial water storage, Mediterranean
要旨:
Sea-level change (SLC) is a much-studied topic in the area of climate research, integrating a range of climate science disciplines, and is expected to impact coastal
communities around the world. As a result, this field is rapidly moving, and the knowledge and understanding of processes contributing to SLC is increasing. Here, we discuss noteworthy recent developments in the projection of SLC contributions and in the global mean and regional sea-level rojections. For the Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to SLC, earlier estimates have been confirmed in recent research, but part of the source of this
contribution has shifted from dynamics to surface melting. New insights into dynamic
discharge processes and the onset of marine ice sheet instability increase the projected
range for the Antarctic contribution by the end of the century. The contribution from both ice sheets is projected to increase further in the coming centuries to millennia. Recent updates of the global glacier outline database and new global glacier models have led to slightly lower projections for the glacier contribution to SLC (7–17 cm by 2100), but still project the glaciers to be an important contribution. For global mean sea-level projections, the focus has shifted to better estimating the uncertainty distributions of the projection time series, which may not necessarily follow a normal distribution. Instead, recent studies use skewed distributions with longer tails to higher uncertainties. Regional projections have
been used to study regional uncertainty distributions, and regional projections are
increasingly being applied to specific regions, countries, and coastal areas.
