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  Impact of the Euro 2020 championship on the spread of COVID-19

Dehning, J., Mohr, S., Contreras, S., Dönges, P., Iftekhar, E., Schulz, O., et al. (2023). Impact of the Euro 2020 championship on the spread of COVID-19. Nature Communications, 14, 122. doi:10.1038/s41467-022-35512-x.

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Item Permalink: https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000F-1104-9 Version Permalink: https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000F-1105-8
Genre: Journal Article

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 Creators:
Dehning, J.1, Author
Mohr, S.B.1, Author
Contreras, S.1, Author
Dönges, P.1, Author
Iftekhar, E.N.1, Author
Schulz, O.1, Author
Bechtle, P.1, Author
Priesemann, V.1, Author
Affiliations:
1Max Planck Institute for Physics, Max Planck Society and Cooperation Partners, ou_2253650              

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Free keywords: Statistical Methods
 Abstract: Large-scale events like the UEFA Euro 2020 football (soccer) championship offer a unique opportunity to quantify the impact of gatherings on the spread of COVID-19, as the number and dates of matches played by participating countries resembles a randomized study. Using Bayesian modeling and the gender imbalance in COVID-19 data, we attribute 840,000 (95{\%} CI: [0.39M, 1.26M]) COVID-19 cases across 12 countries to the championship. The impact depends non-linearly on the initial incidence, the reproduction number R, and the number of matches played. The strongest effects are seen in Scotland and England, where as much as 10,000 primary cases per million inhabitants occur from championship-related gatherings. The average match-induced increase in R was 0.46 [0.18, 0.75] on match days, but important matches caused an increase as large as +3. Altogether, our results provide quantitative insights that help judge and mitigate the impact of large-scale events on pandemic spread.

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 Dates: 2023
 Publication Status: Issued
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: -
 Identifiers: Other: MPP-2023-409
URI: https://publications.mppmu.mpg.de/?action=search&mpi=MPP-2023-409
arXiv: arxiv:2301.07659
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-35512-x
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Title: Nature Communications
Source Genre: Journal
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Publ. Info: -
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 14 Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 122 Identifier: -