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Free keywords:
US–China conflict; Technology war; Technology dominance; Unipolar leadership; Bipolar competition; Decoupling
Abstract:
Three regimes of technology leadership are compared. Firstly, technological innovation in a unipolar world with one dominant country that can sell its technology to a set of small countries. Secondly, competition for leadership between two large countries, with small countries that are independent. Thirdly, a decoupled world in which all small countries are allied with one or the other big country. Small nations fare best when they are independent and large nations engage in leadership competition. Great power nations prefer unipolar leadership. If there are two big nations, they prefer a decoupled world that is partitioned into zones of influence, compared to competing with each other.
