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  Initiation of a Marnoun Snowball Earth in a state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean general circulation model

Voigt, A., Abbot, D. S., Pierrehumbert, R., & Marotzke, J. (2011). Initiation of a Marnoun Snowball Earth in a state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. Climate of the Past, 7, 249-263. doi:10.5194/cpd-7-249-2011.

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資料種別: 学術論文

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cp-7-249-2011.pdf (出版社版), 544KB
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https://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-0011-F4E0-E
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cp-7-249-2011.pdf
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 作成者:
Voigt, A.1, 2, 著者           
Abbot, D. S., 著者
Pierrehumbert, R.T., 著者
Marotzke, J.1, 3, 著者           
所属:
1Director’s Research Group OES, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_913553              
2IMPRS on Earth System Modelling, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_913547              
3C 2 - Climate Change, Predictions, and Economy, Research Area C: Climate Change and Social Dynamics, The CliSAP Cluster of Excellence, External Organizations, Bundesstraße 53, 20146 Hamburg, DE, ou_1863488              

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 要旨: We study the initiation of a Marinoan Snowball Earth (~635 million years before present) with the state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean general circulation model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. This is the most sophisticated model ever applied to Snowball initiation. A comparison with a pre-industrial control climate shows that the change of surface boundary conditions from present-day to Marinoan, including a shift of continents to low latitudes, induces a global-mean cooling of 4.6 K. Two thirds of this cooling can be attributed to increased planetary albedo, the remaining one third to a weaker greenhouse effect. The Marinoan Snowball Earth bifurcation point for pre-industrial atmospheric carbon dioxide is between 95.5 and 96% of the present-day total solar irradiance (TSI), whereas a previous study with the same model found that it was between 91 and 94% for present-day surface boundary conditions. A Snowball Earth for TSI set to its Marinoan value (94% of the present-day TSI) is prevented by doubling carbon dioxide with respect to its pre-industrial level. A zero-dimensional energy balance model is used to predict the Snowball Earth bifurcation point from only the equilibrium global-mean ocean potential temperature for present-day TSI. We do not find stable states with sea-ice cover above 55%, and land conditions are such that glaciers could not grow with sea-ice cover of 55%. Therefore, none of our simulations qualifies as a "slushball" solution. While uncertainties in important processes and parameters such as clouds and sea-ice albedo suggest that the Snowball Earth bifurcation point differs between climate models, our results contradict previous findings that Snowball Earth initiation would require much stronger forcings.

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言語: eng - English
 日付: 2011
 出版の状態: 出版
 ページ: -
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 査読: 査読あり
 識別子(DOI, ISBNなど): DOI: 10.5194/cpd-7-249-2011
 学位: -

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出版物 1

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出版物名: Climate of the Past
種別: 学術雑誌
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出版社, 出版地: Katlenberg-Lindau, Germany : Published by Copernicus on behalf of the European Geosciences Union
ページ: - 巻号: 7 通巻号: - 開始・終了ページ: 249 - 263 識別子(ISBN, ISSN, DOIなど): ISSN: 1814-9324
CoNE: https://pure.mpg.de/cone/journals/resource/1000000000033790