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  Regional climate change in Tropical and Northern Africa due to greenhouse forcing and land use changes

Paeth, H., Born, K., Girmes, R., Podzun, R., & Jacob, D. (2009). Regional climate change in Tropical and Northern Africa due to greenhouse forcing and land use changes. Journal of Climate, 22(1), 114-132. doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2390.1.

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Item Permalink: http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-0011-F856-6 Version Permalink: http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-0019-8926-0
Genre: Journal Article

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2008jcli2390%2E1.pdf (Publisher version), 4MB
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 Creators:
Paeth, H., Author
Born, K., Author
Girmes, R., Author
Podzun, R.1, Author              
Jacob, D.1, 2, Author              
Affiliations:
1The Atmosphere in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_913550              
2B 2 - Land Use and Land Cover Change, Research Area B: Climate Manifestations and Impacts, The CliSAP Cluster of Excellence, External Organizations, Bundesstraße 53, 20146 Hamburg, DE, ou_1863482              

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 Abstract: Human activity is supposed to affect the earth's climate mainly via two processes: the emission of greenhouse gases and aerosols and the alteration of land cover. While the former process is well established in state-of-the-art climate model simulations, less attention has been paid to the latter. However, the low latitudes appear to be particularly sensitive to land use changes, especially in tropical Africa where frequent drought episodes were observed during recent decades. Here several ensembles of long-term transient climate change experiments are presented with a regional climate model to estimate the future pathway of African climate under fairly realistic forcing conditions. Therefore, the simulations are forced with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations as well as land use changes until 2050. Three different scenarios are prescribed in order to assess the range of options inferred from global political, social, and economical development. The authors find a prominent surface heating and a weakening of the hydrological cycle over most of tropical Africa, resulting in enhanced heat stress and extended dry spells. In contrast, the large-scale atmospheric circulation in upper levels is less affected, pointing to a primarily local effect of land degradation on near-surface climate. In the model study, it turns out that land use changes are primarily responsible for the simulated climate response. In general, simulated climate changes are not concealed by internal variability. Thus, the effect of land use changes has to be accounted for when developing more realistic scenarios for future African climate.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2009-01
 Publication Status: Published in print
 Pages: -
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 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: eDoc: 402511
DOI: 10.1175/2008JCLI2390.1
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Title: Journal of Climate
  Alternative Title : J. Clim.
Source Genre: Journal
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 22 (1) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 114 - 132 Identifier: -