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  An intercomparison of regional climate models for Europe: assessing uncertainties in model projections

Deque, M., Rowell, D. P., Luethi, D., Giorgi, F., Christensen, J. H., Rockel, B., et al. (2007). An intercomparison of regional climate models for Europe: assessing uncertainties in model projections. Climatic Change, 81, 53-70. doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9228-x.

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ClimChange_81-53.pdf (Publisher version), 421KB
 
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 Creators:
Deque, M., Author
Rowell, D. P., Author
Luethi, D., Author
Giorgi, F., Author
Christensen, J. H., Author
Rockel, B., Author
Jacob, D.1, Author           
Kjellstroem, E., Author
de Castro, M., Author
van den Hurk, B., Author
Affiliations:
1The Atmosphere in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_913550              

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Free keywords: BALTIC SEA; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY; RADIATIVE-TRANSFER; IBERIAN PENINSULA; SURFACE PROCESSES; BOUNDARY-LAYER; PRECIPITATION; SENSITIVITY; CYCLE; SCENARIOS
 Abstract: Ten regional climate models (RCM) have been integrated with the standard forcings of the PRUDENCE experiment: IPCC-SRES A2 radiative forcing and Hadley Centre boundary conditions. The response over Europe, calculated as the difference between the 2071 2100and the 1961-1990 means can be viewed as an expected value about which various uncertainties exist. Uncertainties are measured here by variance in eight sub-European boxes. Four sources of uncertainty can be evaluated with the material provided by the PRUDENCE project. Sampling uncertainty is due to the fact that the model climate is estimated as an average over a finite number of years (30). Model uncertainty is due to the fact that the models use different techniques to discretize the equations and to represent sub-grid effects. Radiative uncertainty is due to the fact that IPCC-SRES A2 is merely one hypothesis. Some RCMs have been run with another scenario of greenhouse gas concentration (IPCC-SRES B2). Boundary uncertainty is due to the fact that the regional models have been run under the constraint of the same global model. Some RCMs have been run with other boundary forcings. The contribution of the different sources varies according to the field, the region and the season, but the role of boundary forcing is generally greater than the role of the RCM, in particular for temperature. Maps of minimum expected 2m temperature and precipitation responses for the IPCC-A2 scenario show that, despite the above mentioned uncertainties, the signal from the PRUDENCE ensemble is significant.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2007-05
 Publication Status: Issued
 Pages: -
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 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: eDoc: 321562
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-006-9228-x
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Title: Climatic Change
  Alternative Title : Clim. Change
Source Genre: Journal
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 81 Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 53 - 70 Identifier: -