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  An intercomparison of regional climate models for Europe: assessing uncertainties in model projections

Deque, M., Rowell, D. P., Luethi, D., Giorgi, F., Christensen, J. H., Rockel, B., Jacob, D., Kjellstroem, E., de Castro, M., & van den Hurk, B. (2007). An intercomparison of regional climate models for Europe: assessing uncertainties in model projections. Climatic Change, 81, 53-70. doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9228-x.

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資料種別: 学術論文

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ClimChange_81-53.pdf (出版社版), 421KB
 
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ClimChange_81-53.pdf
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制限付き (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, MHMT; )
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application/pdf
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 作成者:
Deque, M., 著者
Rowell, D. P., 著者
Luethi, D., 著者
Giorgi, F., 著者
Christensen, J. H., 著者
Rockel, B., 著者
Jacob, D.1, 著者           
Kjellstroem, E., 著者
de Castro, M., 著者
van den Hurk, B., 著者
所属:
1The Atmosphere in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_913550              

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キーワード: BALTIC SEA; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY; RADIATIVE-TRANSFER; IBERIAN PENINSULA; SURFACE PROCESSES; BOUNDARY-LAYER; PRECIPITATION; SENSITIVITY; CYCLE; SCENARIOS
 要旨: Ten regional climate models (RCM) have been integrated with the standard forcings of the PRUDENCE experiment: IPCC-SRES A2 radiative forcing and Hadley Centre boundary conditions. The response over Europe, calculated as the difference between the 2071 2100and the 1961-1990 means can be viewed as an expected value about which various uncertainties exist. Uncertainties are measured here by variance in eight sub-European boxes. Four sources of uncertainty can be evaluated with the material provided by the PRUDENCE project. Sampling uncertainty is due to the fact that the model climate is estimated as an average over a finite number of years (30). Model uncertainty is due to the fact that the models use different techniques to discretize the equations and to represent sub-grid effects. Radiative uncertainty is due to the fact that IPCC-SRES A2 is merely one hypothesis. Some RCMs have been run with another scenario of greenhouse gas concentration (IPCC-SRES B2). Boundary uncertainty is due to the fact that the regional models have been run under the constraint of the same global model. Some RCMs have been run with other boundary forcings. The contribution of the different sources varies according to the field, the region and the season, but the role of boundary forcing is generally greater than the role of the RCM, in particular for temperature. Maps of minimum expected 2m temperature and precipitation responses for the IPCC-A2 scenario show that, despite the above mentioned uncertainties, the signal from the PRUDENCE ensemble is significant.

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言語: eng - English
 日付: 2007-05
 出版の状態: 出版
 ページ: -
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 目次: -
 査読: 査読あり
 識別子(DOI, ISBNなど): eDoc: 321562
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-006-9228-x
 学位: -

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出版物 1

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出版物名: Climatic Change
  出版物の別名 : Clim. Change
種別: 学術雑誌
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出版社, 出版地: -
ページ: - 巻号: 81 通巻号: - 開始・終了ページ: 53 - 70 識別子(ISBN, ISSN, DOIなど): -