hide
Free keywords:
-
Abstract:
Simulations with seven regional climate models driven by a common control climate simulation of a GCM
carried out for Europe in the context of the (European Union) EU-funded Prediction of Regional scenarios
and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate change risks and Effects (PRUDENCE) project were
analyzed with respect to land surface hydrology in the Rhine basin. In particular, the annual cycle of the
terrestrial water storage was compared to analyses based on the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40)
atmospheric convergence and observed Rhine discharge data. In addition, an analysis was made of the
partitioning of convergence anomalies over anomalies in runoff and storage. This analysis revealed that
most models underestimate the size of the water storage and consequently overestimated the response of
runoff to anomalies in net convergence. The partitioning of these anomalies over runoff and storage was
indicative for the response of the simulated runoff to a projected climate change consistent with the
greenhouse gas A2 Synthesis Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). In particular, the annual cycle of
runoff is affected largely by the terrestrial storage reservoir. Larger storage capacity leads to smaller
changes in both wintertime and summertime monthly mean runoff. The sustained summertime evaporation
resulting from larger storage reservoirs may have a noticeable impact on the summertime surface temperature
projections.
