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  Estimating the decadal predictability of a coupled AOGCM

Pohlmann, H., Botzet, M., Latif, M., Roesch, A., Wild, M., & Tschuck, P. (2004). Estimating the decadal predictability of a coupled AOGCM. Journal of Climate, 17(22), 4463-4472. doi:doi: 10.1175/3209.1.

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JClim4463.pdf (Publisher version), 3MB
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 Creators:
Pohlmann, Holger1, Author           
Botzet, Michael1, 2, Author           
Latif, M.1, Author           
Roesch, A., Author
Wild, M., Author
Tschuck, P., Author
Affiliations:
1The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_913552              
2Director’s Research Group OES, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_913553              

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Free keywords: THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION; MULTIDECADAL VARIABILITY; CLIMATE VARIABILITY; TIME SCALES; ATMOSPHERE; MODEL; PREDICTION; ENSEMBLE; ENSO
 Abstract: On seasonal time scales, ENSO prediction has become feasible in an operational framework in recent years. On decadal to multidecadal time scales, the variability of the oceanic circulation is assumed to provide a potential for climate prediction. To investigate the decadal predictability of the coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) European Centre-Hamburg model version 5/Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM), a 500-yr-long control integration and "perfect model'' predictability experiments are analyzed. The results show that the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of the North Atlantic, Nordic Seas, and Southern Ocean exhibit predictability on multidecadal time scales. Over the ocean, the predictability of surface air temperature (SAT) is very similar to that of SST. Over land, there is little evidence of decadal predictability of SAT except for some small maritime-influenced regions of Europe. The AOGCM produces predictable signals in lower-tropospheric temperature and precipitation over the North Atlantic, but not in sea level pressure

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2004-11
 Publication Status: Issued
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: eDoc: 224374
ISI: 000225385900012
DOI: doi: 10.1175/3209.1
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Title: Journal of Climate
  Alternative Title : J. Clim.
Source Genre: Journal
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 17 (22) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 4463 - 4472 Identifier: ISSN: 0894-8755