非表示:
キーワード:
LIMITED-AREA MODEL; UPPER BOUNDARY-CONDITION; CLIMATE MODEL; INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT; WATER-BUDGET; PREDICTABILITY; ENSO; PREDICTION; PRECIPITATION; MONSOON
要旨:
Simulations of the Indonesian rainfall variability using the Max Planck Institute regional climate model REMO have been performed using three different lateral boundary forcings: Reanalyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA15), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NRA) as well as from ECHAM4 climate model simulation. The result of those simulations are compared to station data. REMO simulations were performed at 0.5degrees horizontal resolution for the whole archipelago and at 1/6degrees for Sulawesi Island. In general the REMO model, reproduces the spatial pattern of monthly and seasonal rainfall well over land, but overestimates the rainfall over sea. Superiority of REMO performance over land is due to a high-resolution orography, while over sea, REMO suffers from erroneously low surface fluxes. REMO reproduces variability during El Nino-Southern Oscillations years well but fails to show a good (wet and dry) monsoon contrast. Despite strong influences of the lateral boundary fields, REMO shows a realistic improvement of a local phenomenon over Molucca. Significant improvement for the step from the relatively high global 1.125degrees to 0.5degrees resolution is noticeable, but not from 0.5degrees into 1/6degrees. The REMO simulation driven by ERA15 has the best quality, followed by NRA and ECHAM4 driven simulations. The quality of ERA15 is the main factor determining the quality of REMO simulations. A predictability study shows small internal variability among ensemble members. However, there are systematic intrinsic climatological errors as shown in the predictability analysis. These intrinsic errors have monthly, seasonal and regional dependencies and the one over Java is significantly large. The intrinsic error study suggests the presence of the spring predictability barrier and a high level of predictability in summer
