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  Global chemical weather forecasts for field campaign planning: predictions and observations of large-scale features during MINOS, CONTRACE, and INDOEX

Lawrence, M. G., Rasch, P. J., von Kuhlmann, R., Williams, J., Fischer, H., de Reus, M., Lelieveld, J., Crutzen, P. J., Schultz, M., Stier, P., Huntrieser, H., Heland, J., Stohl, A., Forster, C., Elbern, H., Jakobs, H., & Dickerson, R. R. (2003). Global chemical weather forecasts for field campaign planning: predictions and observations of large-scale features during MINOS, CONTRACE, and INDOEX. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 3, 267-289.

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資料種別: 学術論文

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 作成者:
Lawrence, M. G., 著者
Rasch, P. J., 著者
von Kuhlmann, R., 著者
Williams, J., 著者
Fischer, H., 著者
de Reus, M., 著者
Lelieveld, J., 著者
Crutzen, P. J.1, 著者
Schultz, Martin2, 著者           
Stier, Philip2, 3, 著者           
Huntrieser, H., 著者
Heland, J., 著者
Stohl, A., 著者
Forster, C., 著者
Elbern, H., 著者
Jakobs, H., 著者
Dickerson, R. R., 著者
所属:
1Max Planck Society, ou_persistent13              
2The Atmosphere in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_913550              
3IMPRS on Earth System Modelling, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, Bundesstraße 53, 20146 Hamburg, DE, ou_913547              

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 要旨: The first global tropospheric forecasts Of 03 and its precursors have been used in the daily flight planning of field measurement campaigns. The 3-D chemistry-transport model MATCH- MPIC is driven by meteorological data from a weather center (NCEP) to produce daily 3-day forecasts of the global distributions Of 03 and related gases, as well as regional CO tracers. This paper describes the forecast system and its use in three field campaigns, MINOS, CONTRACE and INDOEX. An overview is given of the forecasts by MATCH-MPIC and by three other chemical weather forecast models (EURAD, ECHAM, and FLEXPART), focusing on 03 and CO. Total CO and regional CO tracers were found to be the most valuable gases for flight planning, due to their relatively well-defined anthropogenic source regions and lifetimes of one to a few months. CO was in good agreement with the observations on nearly all the flights (generally r > 0.7, and the relative RMS differences for the deviations from the means was less than 20%). In every case in which the chemical weather forecasts were primarily responsible for the flight plans, the targeted features were observed. Three forecasted phenomena are discussed in detail: outflow from Asia observed in the Mediterranean upper troposphere during MINOS, outflow from North America observed in the middle troposphere over northern Europe during CONTRACE, and the location of the "chemical ITCZ" over the Indian Ocean during INDOEX. In particular it is shown that although intercontinental pollution plumes such as those observed during MINOS and CONTRACE occur repeatedly during the months around the campaigns, their frequency is sufficiently low (similar to10-30% of the time) that global chemical weather forecasts are important for enabling them to be observed during limited- duration field campaigns. The MATCH-MPIC chemical weather forecasts, including an interface for making customized figures from the output, are available for community use via http: //www. mpch- mainz. mpg.de/similar tolawrence/forecasts. html.

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言語: eng - English
 日付: 2003-02-26
 出版の状態: 出版
 ページ: -
 出版情報: -
 目次: -
 査読: 査読あり
 識別子(DOI, ISBNなど): eDoc: 19886
ISI: 000181185800001
 学位: -

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出版物 1

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出版物名: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
  出版物の別名 : Atmos. Chem. Phys.
種別: 学術雑誌
 著者・編者:
所属:
出版社, 出版地: -
ページ: - 巻号: 3 通巻号: - 開始・終了ページ: 267 - 289 識別子(ISBN, ISSN, DOIなど): ISSN: 1680-7324