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Forecast skill of multi-year seasonal means in the decadal prediction system of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology

MPS-Authors
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Müller,  Wolfgang A.
Decadal Climate Predictions - MiKlip, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

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Haak,  Helmuth
Director’s Research Group OES, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

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Jungclaus,  Johann H.
Director’s Research Group OES, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

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Kröger,  Jürgen
Ocean Statistics, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

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Matei,  Daniela
Director’s Research Group OES, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

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Notz,  Dirk
Max Planck Research Group The Sea Ice in the Earth System, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

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Pohlmann,  Holger
Decadal Climate Predictions - MiKlip, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

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von Storch,  Jin Song
Ocean Statistics, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

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Marotzke,  Jochem
Director’s Research Group OES, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

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Fulltext (public)

GRL-39-2012-L22707.pdf
(Publisher version), 1019KB

Supplementary Material (public)
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Citation

Müller, W. A., Baehr, J., Haak, H., Jungclaus, J. H., Kröger, J., Matei, D., et al. (2012). Forecast skill of multi-year seasonal means in the decadal prediction system of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Geophysical Research Letters, 39: L22707. doi:10.1029/2012GL053326.


Cite as: http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-0010-1B37-1
Abstract
We examine the latest decadal predictions performed with the coupled model MPI-ESM as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We use ensembles of uninitialized and yearly initialized experiments to estimate the forecast skill for surface air temperature. Like for its precursor, the initialisation of MPI-ESM improves forecast skill for yearly and multi-yearly means, predominately over the North Atlantic for all lead times. Over the tropical Pacific, negative skill scores reflect a systematic error in the initialisation. We also examine the forecast skill of multi-year seasonal means. Skill scores of winter means are predominantly positive over northern Europe. In contrast, summer to autumn means reveal positive skill scores over central and south-eastern Europe. The skill scores of summer means are attributable to an observed pressure-gradient response to the North Atlantic surface temperatures.