The water balance of northern Africa during the mid-Holocene: an evaluation of 
the 6 ka BP PMIP simulations

Coe, M. T.; Harrison, S. P.

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The water balance of northern Africa during the mid-Holocene: an evaluation of the 6 ka BP PMIP simulations

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Harrison, S. P.
Research Group Paleo-Climatology, Dr. S. P. Harrison, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Max Planck Society;

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Citation

Coe, M. T., & Harrison, S. P. (2002). The water balance of northern Africa during the mid-Holocene: an evaluation of the 6 ka BP PMIP simulations. Climate Dynamics, 19(2), 155-166.

Cite as: https://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-000E-CECE-A

Abstract

Runoff fields over northern Africa (10-25degreesN, 20degreesW- 30degreesE) derived from 17 atmospheric general circulation models driven by identical 6 ka BP orbital forcing, sea surface temperatures, and CO₂ concentration have been analyzed using a hydrological routing scheme (HYDRA) to simulate changes in lake area. The AGCM-simulated runoff produced six-fold differences in simulated lake area between models, although even the largest simulated changes considerably underestimate the observed changes in lake area during the mid-Holocene. The inter-model differences in simulated lake area are largely due to differences in simulated runoff (the squared correlation coefficient, R-2, is 0.84). Most of these differences can be attributed to differences in the simulated precipitation (R-2 = 0.83). The higher correlation between runoff and simulated lake area (R-2 = 0.92) implies that simulated differences in evaporation have a contributory effect. When runoff is calculated using an offline land-surface scheme (BIOME3), the correlation between runoff and simulated lake area is (R-2 = 0.94). Finally, the spatial distribution of simulated precipitation can exert an important control on the overall response.