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学術論文

EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research

MPS-Authors
/persons/resource/persons37190

Jacob,  Daniela
The Atmosphere in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;
B 5 - Urban Systems - Test Bed Hamburg, Research Area B: Climate Manifestations and Impacts, The CliSAP Cluster of Excellence, External Organizations;

Petersen ,  Juliane
The Atmosphere in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

/persons/resource/persons37268

Moseley,  Christopher
The Atmosphere in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

/persons/resource/persons76352

Radermacher,  Christine
The Atmosphere in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;
IMPRS on Earth System Modelling, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

/persons/resource/persons37302

Rechid,  Diana
The Atmosphere in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

/persons/resource/persons37353

Teichmann,  Claas
The Atmosphere in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

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フルテキスト (公開)

10.1007_s10113-013-0499-2.pdf
(出版社版), 3MB

10.1007%2Fs10113-014-0587-y.pdf
(出版社版), 143KB

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引用

Jacob, D., Petersen, J., Eggert, B., Alias, A., Christensen, O. B., Bouwer, L. M., Braun, A., Colette, A., Déqué, M., Georgievski, G., Georgopoulou, E., Gobiet, A., Menut, L., Nikulin, G., Haensler, A., Hempelmann, N., Jones, C., Keuler, K., Kovats, S., Kröner, N., Kotlarski, S., Kriegsmann, A., Martin, E., van Meijgaard, E., Moseley, C., Pfeifer, S., Preuschmann, S., Radermacher, C., Radtke, K., Rechid, D., Rounsevell, M., Samuelsson, P., Somot, S., Soussana, J.-F., Teichmann, C., Valentini, R., Vautard, R., Weber, B., & Yiou, P. (2014). EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research. Regional Environmental Change, 14, 563-578. doi:10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2.


引用: https://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-0014-11A5-1
要旨
A new high-resolution regional climate change ensemble has been established for Europe within the World Climate Research Program Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) initiative. The first set of simulations with a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km was completed for the new emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with more simulations expected to follow. The aim of this paper is to present this data set to the different communities active in regional climate modelling, impact assessment and adaptation. The EURO-CORDEX ensemble results have been compared to the SRES A1B simulation results achieved within the ENSEMBLES project. The large-scale patterns of changes in mean temperature and precipitation are similar in all three scenarios, but they differ in regional details, which can partly be related to the higher resolution in EURO-CORDEX. The results strengthen those obtained in ENSEMBLES, but need further investigations. The analysis of impact indices shows that for RCP8.5, there is a substantially larger change projected for temperature-based indices than for RCP4.5. The difference is less pronounced for precipitation-based indices. Two effects of the increased resolution can be regarded as an added value of regional climate simulations. Regional climate model simulations provide higher daily precipitation intensities, which are completely missing in the global climate model simulations, and they provide a significantly different climate change of daily precipitation intensities resulting in a smoother shift from weak to moderate and high intensities.