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The climate of the Mediterranean region in future climate projections

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Planton, S., Lionello, P., Vincenzo, A., Aznar, R., Carrillo, A., Colin, J., et al. (2012). The climate of the Mediterranean region in future climate projections. In The climate of the Mediterranean Region (pp. 449-502). Amsterdam: Elsevier.

Future climate change over the Mediterranean area is investigated by means of climate model simulations covering the twenty-first century that take into account different anthropogenic greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios. This chapter first gives some new insights on these projections coming from the use of new methods, including the coupling at the regional scale of the atmospheric component to a Mediterranean Sea component. A synthesis of the expected changes of key aspects of the Mediterranean regional climate, obtained with a wide range of models and downscaling methods, is then presented. This includes an overview of not only expected changes in the mean climate and climate extremes but also possible changes in Mediterranean Sea temperature, salinity, circulation, water and heat budgets, and sea level. The chapter ends with some advanced results on the way to deal with uncertainties in climate projections and some discussion on the confidence that we can attribute to these projections.