Evaluating global warming potentials with historical temperature

Tanaka, Katsumasa; O'Neill, Brian C.; Rokityanskiy, Dmitry; Obersteiner, Michael; Tol, Richard S. J.

doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9566-6

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Evaluating global warming potentials with historical temperature

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Tanaka, Katsumasa
IMPRS on Earth System Modelling, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;
Global Vegetation Modelling, The Land in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

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Obersteiner, Michael
Department Biogeochemical Processes, Prof. S. E. Trumbore, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Max Planck Society;

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Citation

Tanaka, K., O'Neill, B. C., Rokityanskiy, D., Obersteiner, M., & Tol, R. S. J. (2009). Evaluating global warming potentials with historical temperature. Climatic Change, 96(4), 443-466. doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9566-6.

Cite as: https://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-0015-3D96-7

Abstract

Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) are evaluated with historical temperature by applying them to convert historical CH(4) and N(2)O emissions to equivalent CO(2) emissions. Our GWP analysis is based on an inverse estimation using the Aggregated Carbon Cycle, Atmospheric Chemistry, and Climate Model (ACC2). We find that, for both CH(4) and N(2)O, indices higher than the Kyoto GWPs (100-year time horizon) would reproduce better the historical temperature. The CH(4) GWP provides a best fit to the historical temperature when it is calculated with a time horizon of 44 years. However, the N(2)O GWP does not approximate well the historical temperature with any time horizon. We introduce a new exchange metric, TEMperature Proxy index (TEMP), that is defined so that it provides a best fit to the temperature projection of a given period. By comparing GWPs and TEMPs, we find that the inability of the N(2)O GWP to reproduce the historical temperature is caused by the GWP calculation methodology in IPCC using simplifying assumptions for the background system dynamics and uncertain parameter estimations. Furthermore, our TEMP calculations demonstrate that indices have to be progressively updated upon the acquisition of new measurements and/or the advancement of our understanding of Earth system processes.