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Downscaling tropical cyclones from global re-analysis and scenarios: statistics of multi-decadal variability of TC activity in E asia

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von Storch, H., Feser, F., & Barcikowska, M. (2010). Downscaling tropical cyclones from global re-analysis and scenarios: statistics of multi-decadal variability of TC activity in E asia. Coastal Engineering Proceedings; Proceedings of 32nd Conference on Coastal Engineering, 32.


Zitierlink: http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-0018-9070-2
Zusammenfassung
An atmospheric regional climate model was employed for describingweather of E Asia for the last decades as well as for the comingcentury. Re-analyses provided by Global National Center for EnvironmentalPrediction - National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR)for the past six decades, as well a scenario generated by the ECHAM5/MPI-OMmodel were dynamically downscaled to a 50 km grid using a state-of-the-artregional climate model (CCLM). Using an automated tracking system,all tropical cyclones (TCs) are identified in the multi-decadal simulations.The different analysis products of TC-statistics were found to differstrongly, also in recent times when the data base was good, so thatin the long-term statistics 1950-2010 inhomogeneities mask real climaticvariations. The 1948-2009 time series of the annual numbers of TCsin the NCEP-driven simulation and in the JMA best track data (BT)correlate favourably. The number is almost constant, even if thereis a slight tendency in BT to show less storms, whereas CCLM showssomewhat more storms, which became more intense. The ECHAM5/MPI-OM-drivenscenario simulation, subject to 1959-2100 observed and projectedgreenhouse gas concentrations, shows a reduction of the number ofstorms, which maintains a stationary intensity in terms of maximumsustained winds and minimum pressure. Thus, BT-trends and downscaledtrends were found to be inconsistent, but also the downscaled trends1948-2009 and the trends derived from the A1B-scenario were different.