English
 
User Manual Privacy Policy Disclaimer Contact us
  Advanced SearchBrowse

Item

ITEM ACTIONSEXPORT

Released

Journal Article

Seasonal to interannual Arctic sea ice predictability in current global climate models

MPS-Authors
/persons/resource/persons37258

Matei,  Daniela
Director’s Research Group OES, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

External Ressource
No external resources are shared
Fulltext (public)
Supplementary Material (public)
There is no public supplementary material available
Citation

Tietsche, S., Day, J. J., Guemas, V., Hurlin, W. J., Keeley, S. P. E., Matei, D., et al. (2014). Seasonal to interannual Arctic sea ice predictability in current global climate models. Geophysical Research Letters, 41, 1035-1043. doi:10.1002/2013GL058755.


Cite as: http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-0019-11E7-A
Abstract
We establish the first intermodel comparison of seasonal to interannual predictability of present-day Arctic climate by performing coordinated sets of idealized ensemble predictions with four state-of-the-art global climate models. For Arctic sea ice extent and volume, there is potential predictive skill for lead times of up to 3 years, and potential prediction errors have similar growth rates and magnitudes across the models. Spatial patterns of potential prediction errors differ substantially between the models, but some features are robust. Sea ice concentration errors are largest in the marginal ice zone, and in winter they are almost zero away from the ice edge. Sea ice thickness errors are amplified along the coasts of the Arctic Ocean, an effect that is dominated by sea ice advection. These results give an upper bound on the ability of current global climate models to predict important aspects of Arctic climate.