Off-the-record target zones: theory with an application to Hong Kong's currency 
board

Chen, Yu-Fu; Funke, Michael; Glanemann, Nicole

doi:10.1515/snde-2012-0034

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Off-the-record target zones: theory with an application to Hong Kong's currency board

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Glanemann, Nicole
IMPRS on Earth System Modelling, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

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Citation

Chen, Y.-F., Funke, M., & Glanemann, N. (2013). Off-the-record target zones: theory with an application to Hong Kong's currency board. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 17(4), 373-393. doi:10.1515/snde-2012-0034.

Cite as: https://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-0019-F265-6

Abstract

This paper provides a modelling framework for evaluating the exchange rate dynamics of a target zone regime with undisclosed bands. We generalize the literature to allow for asymmetric one-sided regimes. Market participants' beliefs concerning an undisclosed band change as they learn more about central bank intervention policy. We apply the model to Hong Kong's one-sided currency board mechanism. In autumn 2003, the Hong Kong dollar appreciated from close to 7.80 per US dollar to 7.70, as investors feared that the currency board would be abandoned. In the wake of this appreciation, the monetary authorities finally revamped the regime as a symmetric two-sided system with a narrow exchange rate band.