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Abstract

We present the Canberra-Hamburg Integrated Model for Population (CHIMP), a new global population model for long-term projections. Dis- tinguishing features of this model, compared to other models for secular population projections, are that (a) mortality, fertility, and migration are partly driven by per capita income; (b) large parts of the model have been estimated rather than calibrated; and (c) the model is in the pub- lic domain. Scenario experiments show similarities but also differences with other models. Similarities include rapid aging of the population and an eventual reversal of global population growth. The main difference is that CHIMP projects substantially higher populations, particularly in Africa, primarily because our data indicate a slower fertility decline that assumed elsewhere. Model runs show a strong interaction between popula- tion growth and economic growth, and a weak feedback of climate change on population growth.