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Comparison of ITER performance predicted by semi-empirical and theory-based transport models

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Sugihara,  M.
Experimental Plasma Physics 2 (E2), Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics, Max Planck Society;

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Kardaun,  O.
Tokamak Theory (TOK), Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics, Max Planck Society;

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Pereverzev,  G.
Tokamak Theory (TOK), Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics, Max Planck Society;

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Kukushkin,  A.
Material Research (MF), Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics, Max Planck Society;

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Citation

Mukhovatov, V., Shimomura, Y., Polevoi, A., Shimada, M., Sugihara, M., Bateman, G., et al. (2003). Comparison of ITER performance predicted by semi-empirical and theory-based transport models. Nuclear Fusion, 43, 942-948. doi:10.1088/0029-5515/43/9/318.


Cite as: http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-0027-3C35-A
Abstract
The values of Q = (fusion power)/(auxiliary heating power) predicted for ITER by three different methods are compared. The first method utilizes an empirical confinement-time scaling and prescribed radial profiles of transport coefficients; the second approach extrapolates from specially designed ITER similarity experiments, and the third approach is based on partly theory-based transport models. The energy confinement time given by the ITERH-98(y, 2) scaling for an inductive scenario with a plasma current of 15 MA and a plasma density 15% below the Greenwald density is 3.7 s with one estimated technical standard deviation of ±14%. This translates, in the first approach, for levels of helium removal, and impurity concentration, that, albeit rather stringent, are expected to be attainable, into an interval for Q of [6–15] at the auxiliary heating power, Paux = 40 MW, and [6–30] at the minimum heating power satisfying a good confinement ELMy H-mode. All theoretical transport-model calculations have been performed for the plasma core only, whereas the pedestal temperatures were taken as estimated from empirical scalings. Predictions of similarity experiments from JET and of theory-based transport models that we have considered—Weiland, MMM, and IFS/PPPL—overlap with the prediction using the empirical confinement-time scaling within its estimated margin of uncertainty.