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Abstract

Link failures repeatedly induce large-scale outages in power grids and other supply networks. Yet, it is still not well understood which links are particularly prone to inducing such outages. Here we analyze how the nature and location of each link impact the network’s capability to maintain a stable supply. We propose two criteria to identify critical links on the basis of the topology and the load distribution of the network prior to link failure. They are determined via a link’s redundant capacity and a renormalized linear response theory we derive. These criteria outperform the critical link prediction based on local measures such as loads. The results not only further our understanding of the physics of supply networks in general. As both criteria are available before any outage from the state of normal operation, they may also help real-time monitoring of grid operation, employing countermeasures and support network planning and design.