Observed Arctic sea-ice loss directly follows anthropogenic CO2 emission

Notz, Dirk; Stroeve, J.

doi:10.1126/science.aag2345

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Observed Arctic sea-ice loss directly follows anthropogenic CO2 emission

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Notz, Dirk
Max Planck Research Group The Sea Ice in the Earth System, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

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https://lt.org/publication/when-will-arctic-sea-ice-be-gone
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Citation

Notz, D., & Stroeve, J. (2016). Observed Arctic sea-ice loss directly follows anthropogenic CO2 emission. Science, 354, 747-750. doi:10.1126/science.aag2345.

Cite as: https://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-002B-B166-0

Abstract

Arctic sea ice is retreating rapidly, raising prospects of a future ice-free Arctic Ocean during summer. Since climate-model simulations of the sea-ice loss differ substantially, we here use a robust linear relationship between monthly-mean September sea-ice area and cumulative CO2 emissions to infer the future evolution of Arctic summer sea ice directly from the observational record. The observed linear relationship implies a sustained loss of 3 ± 0.3 m2 of September sea-ice area per metric ton of CO2 emission. Based on this sensitivity, Arctic sea-ice will be lost throughout September for an additional 1000 Gt of CO2 emissions. Most models show a lower sensitivity, which is possibly linked to an underestimation of the modeled increase in incoming longwave radiation and of the modeled Transient Climate Response.