The Hog Cycle of Law Professors. An Econometric Time Series Analysis of the 
Entry-level Job Market in Legal Academia

Engel, Christoph; Hamann, Hanjo

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The Hog Cycle of Law Professors. An Econometric Time Series Analysis of the Entry-level Job Market in Legal Academia

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Engel, Christoph
Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, Max Planck Society;

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Hamann, Hanjo
Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, Max Planck Society;

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http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0159815
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Engel, C., & Hamann, H. (2016). The Hog Cycle of Law Professors. An Econometric Time Series Analysis of the Entry-level Job Market in Legal Academia. PLOS One, 11(7): e0159815.

Cite as: https://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-002B-0085-6

Abstract

The (German) market for law professors fulfils the conditions for a hog cycle: In the short run, supply cannot be extended or limited; future law professors must be hired soon after they first present themselves, or leave the market; demand is inelastic. Using a comprehensive German dataset, we show that the number of market entries today is negatively correlated with the number of market entries eight years ago. This suggests short-sighted behavior of young scholars at the time when they decide to prepare for the market. Using our statistical model, we make out-of-sample predictions for the German academic market in law until 2020.