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Journal Article

The Hog Cycle of Law Professors. An Econometric Time Series Analysis of the Entry-level Job Market in Legal Academia

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Engel,  Christoph
Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, Max Planck Society;

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Hamann,  Hanjo
Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, Max Planck Society;

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Citation

Engel, C., & Hamann, H. (2016). The Hog Cycle of Law Professors. An Econometric Time Series Analysis of the Entry-level Job Market in Legal Academia. PLOS One, 11(7): e0159815.


Cite as: http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-002B-0085-6
Abstract
The (German) market for law professors fulfils the conditions for a hog cycle: In the short run, supply cannot be extended or limited; future law professors must be hired soon after they first present themselves, or leave the market; demand is inelastic. Using a comprehensive German dataset, we show that the number of market entries today is negatively correlated with the number of market entries eight years ago. This suggests short-sighted behavior of young scholars at the time when they decide to prepare for the market. Using our statistical model, we make out-of-sample predictions for the German academic market in law until 2020.