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Abstract

A fingerprint method for detecting anthropogenic climate change is applied to new simulations with a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (CGCM) forced by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols covering the years 1880 to 2050. in addition to the anthropogenic climate change signal, the space-time structure of the natural climate variability for near-surface temperatures is estimated from instrumental data over the last 134 years and two 1000 year simulations with CGCMs. The estimates are compared with paleoclimate data over 570 years. The space—time information on both the signal and the noise is used to maximize the signal—to—noise ratio of a detection variable obtained by applying an optimal filter (fingerprint) to the observed data. The inclusion of aerosols slows the predicted future warming. The probability that the observed increase in nearusurface temperatures in recent decades is of natural origin is estimated to be less than 5 %. However, this number is dependent on the estimated natural variability level, which is still subject to some uncertainty.