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The phase of the 30- To 60-day ocscillation and the geneseis of tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific

MPS-Authors

Von Storch,  Hans
MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

Smallegange,  Ann
MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

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067-Report.pdf
(Publisher version), 2MB

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Citation

Von Storch, H., & Smallegange, A. (1991). The phase of the 30- To 60-day ocscillation and the geneseis of tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific. Report / Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, 66.


Cite as: http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0001-2862-4
Abstract
The relationship between the genesis of tropical cyclones in the Western Paci- fic and the phase of the tropical 30- to 60 day oscillation (MJO) is analysed using 5 years of data. The phase of the MJO is described by the POP index of the MJO. A statistically significant signal is identified for both the North and South Pacific: More (less) cyclones than on average occur when the MJO is causing negative (positive) regional outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) anomalies. The signal is considerably better defined in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere. In the Southern (Northern) hemisphere the expected number of cyclones formed in the convectively active MJO—phase is 4 (2.25) times the expected number in the inactive phase.