Predicted chance that global warming will temporarily exceed 1.5°C

Smith, D. M.; Scaife, A. A.; Hawkins, E.; Bilbao, R.; Boer, G. J.; Caian, M.; Caron, L.-P.; Danabasoglu, G.; Delworth, T.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Doescher, R.; Dunstone, N.J.; Eade, R.; Hermanson, L.; Ishii, M.; Kharin, V.; Kimoto, M.; Koenigk, Torben; Kushnir, Y.; Matei, Daniela; Meehl, G. A.; Menegoz, M.; Merryfield, W. J.; Mochizuki, T.; Müller, W. A.; Pohlmann, Holger; Power, S.; Rixen, M.; Tuma, M.; Wyser, K.; Yang, X.; Yeager, S.

doi:10.1029/2018GL079362

Item

ITEM ACTIONSEXPORT

Add to Basket

Local TagsRelease HistoryDetailsSummary

Released

Journal Article

Predicted chance that global warming will temporarily exceed 1.5°C

MPS-Authors

/persons/resource/persons37258

Matei, Daniela
Director’s Research Group OES, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

/persons/resource/persons37295

Pohlmann, Holger
Decadal Climate Predictions - MiKlip, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

External Resource

No external resources are shared

Fulltext (restricted access)

There are currently no full texts shared for your IP range.

Fulltext (public)

Smith_et_al-2018-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf
(Publisher version), 3MB

Supplementary Material (public)

There is no public supplementary material available

Citation

Smith, D. M., Scaife, A. A., Hawkins, E., Bilbao, R., Boer, G. J., Caian, M., et al. (2018). Predicted chance that global warming will temporarily exceed 1.5°C. Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 11895-11903. doi:10.1029/2018GL079362.

Cite as: https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0002-59B5-E

Abstract

The Paris Agreement calls for efforts to limit anthropogenic global warming to less than 1.5oC above pre‐industrial levels. However, natural internal variability may exacerbate anthropogenic warming to produce temporary excursions above 1.5oC. Such excursions would not necessarily exceed the Paris Agreement, but would provide a warning that the threshold is being approached. Here we develop a new capability to predict the probability that global temperature will exceed 1.5oC above pre‐industrial levels in the coming five‐years. For the period 2017 to 2021 we predict a 38% and 10% chance respectively of monthly or yearly temperatures exceeding 1.5oC, with virtually no chance of the five‐year mean being above the threshold. Our forecasts will be updated annually to provide policy makers with advanced warning of the evolving probability and duration of future warming events.