The double-gap life expectancy forecasting model

Pascariu, Marius D.; Canudas Romo, Vladimir; Vaupel, James W.

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The double-gap life expectancy forecasting model

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Pascariu, Marius D.
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Max Planck Society;

Canudas Romo, Vladimir
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Max Planck Society;

Vaupel, James W.
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Max Planck Society;

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Citation

Pascariu, M. D., Canudas Romo, V., & Vaupel, J. W. (2018). The double-gap life expectancy forecasting model. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 78, 339-350.

Cite as: https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0004-7C8C-4

Abstract

<p>Life expectancy is highly correlated over time among countries and between males and females. These associations can be used to improve forecasts. Here we propose a method for forecasting female life expectancy based on analysis of the gap between female life expectancy in a country compared with the record level of female life expectancy in the world. Second, to forecast male life expectancy, the gap between male life expectancy and female life expectancy in a country is analysed. We present these results for various developed countries. We compare our results with forecasts based on the Lee–Carter approach and the Cairns–Blake–Dowd strategy. We focus on forecasting life expectancy at age 0 and remaining life expectancy at age 65.</p>