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Journal Article

The double-gap life expectancy forecasting model

MPS-Authors

Pascariu,  Marius D.
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Max Planck Society;

Canudas Romo,  Vladimir
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Max Planck Society;

Vaupel,  James W.
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Max Planck Society;

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Citation

Pascariu, M. D., Canudas Romo, V., & Vaupel, J. W. (2018). The double-gap life expectancy forecasting model. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 78, 339-350.


Cite as: http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0004-7C8C-4
Abstract
<p>Life expectancy is highly correlated over time among countries and between males and females. These associations can be used to improve forecasts. Here we propose a method for forecasting female life expectancy based on analysis of the gap between female life expectancy in a country compared with the record level of female life expectancy in the world. Second, to forecast male life expectancy, the gap between male life expectancy and female life expectancy in a country is analysed. We present these results for various developed countries. We compare our results with forecasts based on the Lee&ndash;Carter approach and the Cairns&ndash;Blake&ndash;Dowd strategy. We focus on forecasting life expectancy at age 0 and remaining life expectancy at age 65.</p>