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Realistic quasi-biennial oscillation variability in historical and decadal hindcast simulations using CMIP6 forcing

MPS-Authors
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Pohlmann,  Holger
Decadal Climate Predictions - MiKlip, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

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Müller,  Wolfgang A.
Decadal Climate Predictions - MiKlip, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

Bittner,  Matthias
IMPRS on Earth System Modelling, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;
Director’s Research Group OES, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

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Modali,  Kameswarrao
Decadal Climate Predictions - MiKlip, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

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Marotzke,  Jochem
Director’s Research Group OES, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

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Citation

Pohlmann, H., Müller, W. A., Bittner, M., Hettrich, S., Modali, K., Pankatz, K., et al. (2019). Realistic quasi-biennial oscillation variability in historical and decadal hindcast simulations using CMIP6 forcing. Geophysical Research Letters, 46, 14118-14125. doi:10.1029/2019GL084878.


Cite as: http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0005-5A7C-C
Abstract
We analyze the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) variability of historical and decadal hindcast simulations of the MiKlip (Mittelfristige Klimavorhersagen) decadal prediction system using the higher resolved version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model. We find a realistic variability of the QBO in historical simulations when changing from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) external forcing. This agreement between the simulated and the observed QBO is improved by the initialization of decadal hindcast simulations with CMIP6 forcing in the first three lead years. In the decadal hindcast simulations, the agreement is similar to a persistence forecast in the first five lead years and higher than the persistence forecast in the later lead years. We find a strong relation between the QBO and the ozone variability in the stratosphere and conclude that the change of the ozone data from CMIP5 to CMIP6 leads to the improved QBO variability and prediction skill in our simulations.