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Journal Article

Structure and predictability of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon in a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model

MPS-Authors

Latif,  M.
MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

Sterl,  A.
MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

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Maier-Reimer,  Ernst
MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

Junge,  M.M.
MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

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Citation

Latif, M., Sterl, A., Maier-Reimer, E., & Junge, M. (1993). Structure and predictability of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon in a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. Journal of Climate, 6, 700-708. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1993)006<0700:SAPOTE>2.0.CO;2.


Cite as: https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0004-BC08-0
Abstract
Two comprehensive datasets were analyzed by means of an advanced statistical method, one based on observational data and the other on data derived from an extended-range integration performed with a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. It is shown that a considerable portion of the ENSO-related low-frequency climate variability in both datasets is associated with a cycle involving slow propagation in the equatorial oceanic heat content and the surface wind field. The existence of this cycle implies the possibility of climate predictions in the tropics up to lead times of about one year. This is shown by conducting an ensemble of predictions with our coupled general circulation model. For the first time a coupled model of this type was successfully applied to ENSO predictions. -from Authors