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Journal Article

Broad consistency between observed and simulated trends in the sea surface temperature patterns

MPS-Authors
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Olonscheck,  Dirk
Max Planck Research Group The Sea Ice in the Earth System, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

Rugenstein,  Maria
Director’s Research Group OES, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

/persons/resource/persons37256

Marotzke,  Jochem
Director’s Research Group OES, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

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Fulltext (public)

2019GL086773.pdf
(Publisher version), 11MB

Supplementary Material (public)

grl60604-sup-0001-2019gl086773-text_si-s01.pdf
(Supplementary material), 21MB

grl60604-sup-0002-2019gl086773-text_si-s01.tex
(Supplementary material), 22KB

Citation

Olonscheck, D., Rugenstein, M., & Marotzke, J. (2020). Broad consistency between observed and simulated trends in the sea surface temperature patterns. Geophysical Research Letters, 47: e2019GL086773. doi:10.1029/2019GL086773.


Cite as: http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0005-C064-1
Abstract
Using seven single-model ensembles and the two multimodel ensembles CMIP5 and CMIP6, we show that observed and simulated trends in sea surface temperature (SST) patterns are globally consistent when accounting for internal variability. Some individual ensemble members simulate trends in large-scale SST patterns that closely resemble the observed ones. Observed regional trends that lie at the outer edge of the models' internal variability range allow two nonexclusive interpretations: (a) Observed trends are unusual realizations of the Earth's possible behavior and/or (b) the models are systematically biased but large internal variability leads to some good matches with the observations. The existing range of multidecadal SST trends is influenced more strongly by large internal variability than by differences in the model formulation or the observational data sets. ©2020. The Authors.