Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future 
prospects

Deser, C.; Lehner, F.; Rodgers, K. B.; Ault, T.; Delworth, T. L.; DiNezio, P. N.; Fiore, A.; Frankignoul, C.; Fyfe, J. C.; Horton, D. E.; Kay, J. E.; Knutti, R.; Lovenduski, N. S.; Marotzke, Jochem; McKinnon, K. A.; Minobe, S.; Randerson, J.; Screen, J. A.; Simpson, I. R.; Ting, M.; (US CLIVAR Working Group on Large Ensembles)

doi:10.1038/s41558-020-0731-2

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Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects

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Marotzke, Jochem
Director’s Research Group OES, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;
US CLIVAR Working Group on Large Ensembles;

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Citation

Deser, C., Lehner, F., Rodgers, K. B., Ault, T., Delworth, T. L., DiNezio, P. N., et al. (2020). Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects. Nature Climate Change, 10, 277-286. doi:10.1038/s41558-020-0731-2.

Cite as: https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0005-F868-F

Abstract

Internal variability in the climate system confounds assessment of human-induced climate change and imposes irreducible limits on the accuracy of climate change projections, especially at regional and decadal scales. A new collection of initial-condition large ensembles (LEs) generated with seven Earth system models under historical and future radiative forcing scenarios provides new insights into uncertainties due to internal variability versus model differences. These data enhance the assessment of climate change risks, including extreme events, and offer a powerful testbed for new methodologies aimed at separating forced signals from internal variability in the observational record. Opportunities and challenges confronting the design and dissemination of future LEs, including increased spatial resolution and model complexity alongside emerging Earth system applications, are discussed.