Global trends in carbon sinks and their relationships with CO2 and temperature

Fernandez-Martinez, M.; Sardans, J.; Chevallier, F.; Ciais, P.; Obersteiner, M.; Vicca, S.; Canadell, J. G.; Bastos, Ana; Friedlingstein, P.; Sitch, S.; Piao, S. L.; Janssens, I. A.; Penuelas, J.

doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0367-7

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Global trends in carbon sinks and their relationships with CO₂ and temperature

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Fernandez-Martinez, M., Sardans, J., Chevallier, F., Ciais, P., Obersteiner, M., Vicca, S., et al. (2019). Global trends in carbon sinks and their relationships with CO₂ and temperature. Nature Climate Change, 9(1), 73-81. doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0367-7.

Cite as: https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0006-AAEB-2

Abstract

Elevated CO2 concentrations increase photosynthesis and, potentially, net ecosystem production (NEP), meaning a greater CO2 uptake. Climate, nutrients and ecosystem structure, however, influence the effect of increasing CO2. Here we analysed global NEP from MACC-II and Jena CarboScope atmospheric inversions and ten dynamic global vegetation models ( TRENDY), using statistical models to attribute the trends in NEP to its potential drivers: CO2, climatic variables and land-use change. We found that an increased CO2 was consistently associated with an increased NEP (1995-2014). Conversely, increased temperatures were negatively associated with NEP. Using the two atmospheric inversions and TRENDY, the estimated global sensitivities for CO2 were 6.0 +/- 0.1, 8.1 +/- 0.3 and 3.1 +/- 0.1 PgC per 100 ppm (similar to 1 degrees C increase), and -0.5 +/- 0.2, -0.9 +/- 0.4 and -1.1 +/- 0.1 PgC degrees C-1 for temperature. These results indicate a positive CO2 effect on terrestrial C sinks that is constrained by climate warming.