Forecasting life expectancy: the SCOPE approach

Vaupel, James W.

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-05075-7_6

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Forecasting life expectancy: the SCOPE approach

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引用

Vaupel, J. W. (2019). Forecasting life expectancy: the SCOPE approach. In T., Bengtsson, & N., Keilman (Eds.), Old and new perspectives on mortality forecasting (Demographic research monographs, pp. 73-77). Cham: Springer.

引用: https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0006-B11A-5

要旨

This note outlines a method for forecasting life expectancy. The method is based on the idea of structured conditional probabilistic estimation; it “scopes” out the range of possibilities the future may hold. I first described this SCOPE method at a workshop organized by Juha Alho several years ago in Finland. It is a kind of scenario method – with probabilities attached to scenarios, with scenarios structured conditionally, and with the possibility of stochastic scenarios. It is a simple method, and it is by no means original; many other people have used a similar approach in various settings. This method might be helpful to those who want to forecast life expectancy. This note summarizes my presentation.