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Journal Article

A control theory approach to optimal pandemic mitigation

MPS-Authors
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Godara,  Prakhar
Group Collective phenomena far from equilibrium, Department of Dynamics of Complex Fluids, Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Max Planck Society;

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Herminghaus,  Stephan
Group Collective phenomena far from equilibrium, Department of Dynamics of Complex Fluids, Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Max Planck Society;

/persons/resource/persons242077

Heidemann,  Knut M.
Group Physics of social systems, Department of Dynamics of Complex Fluids, Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Max Planck Society;

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2009.02513.pdf
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Citation

Godara, P., Herminghaus, S., & Heidemann, K. M. (2021). A control theory approach to optimal pandemic mitigation. PLoS One, 16(2): e0247445. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0247445.


Cite as: https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0007-034D-0
Abstract
In the framework of homogeneous susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) models,
we use a control theory approach to identify optimal pandemic mitigation
strategies. We derive rather general conditions for reaching herd immunity
while minimizing the costs incurred by the introduction of societal control
measures (such as closing schools, social distancing, lockdowns, etc.), under
the constraint that the infected fraction of the population does never exceed a
certain maximum corresponding to public health system capacity. Optimality is
derived and verified by variational and numerical methods for a number of cost
model functions. The effects of immune response decay after recovery are taken
into account and discussed in terms of the feasibility of strategies based on
herd immunity.