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Conference Paper

The change in forest fire danger and burnt area related to the change in meteorological forcing variability

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Kloster,  Silvia
Emmy Noether Junior Research Group Fire in the Earth System, The Land in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

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Citation

Veanti, D. P. O., & Kloster, S. (2018). The change in forest fire danger and burnt area related to the change in meteorological forcing variability. In AIP Conference Proceedings (pp. 020008). doi:10.1063/1.5047293.


Cite as: https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0007-118F-5
Abstract
In this study, we investigate the response of forest fire danger and burnt area to the change in the variability of mete-orological forcings. Two datasets (control and reduced meteorological variability-REDVAR) are applied in the calculation of the Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) and the burnt area simulated by the JSBACH-SPITFIRE model. Reducing the meteorological forcing variability reduces the global mean FFDI by around 6.4% and mean burnt area by around 3.6%. The change in the 95th percentile is higher, around 14.6% for FFDI and 4.7% for burnt area. To investigate the main factors causing these changes, we use the factor separation method. The result from this method shows that the change in FFDI is mainly caused by the relative humidity (global mean: 6%; 95th percentile: 12%) and maximum temperature (Global mean: 1%; 95th percentile: 3%). The difference in the FFDI is always negative while the difference in the burnt area is negative as well as positive. This is because FFDI is solely influenced by meteorological forcing variability while burnt area is influenced by the availability of fuel and fire danger condition.