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Journal Article

Poleward shift of northern subtropics in winter: time of emergence of zonal versus regional signals

MPS-Authors
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D'Agostino,  Roberta
Director’s Research Group LES, The Land in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

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Jungclaus,  Johann H.
Director’s Research Group OES, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

External Ressource
Fulltext (public)

2020GL089325.pdf
(Publisher version), 4MB

Supplementary Material (public)

grl61187-sup-0001-text_si-s01.pdf
(Supplementary material), 2MB

grl61187-sup-0001-text_si-s01.tex
(Supplementary material), 15KB

grl61187-sup-0003-figure_si-s01.pdf
(Supplementary material), 2MB

Citation

D'Agostino, R., Scambiati, A., Jungclaus, J. H., & Lionello, P. (2020). Poleward shift of northern subtropics in winter: time of emergence of zonal versus regional signals. Geophysical Research Letters, 47: e2020GL089325. doi:10.1029/2020GL089325.


Cite as: http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0007-47B6-C
Abstract
The Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes will be exposed to hydroclimatic risk in next coming decades because the subtropical expansion. However, it is not clear when the anthropogenic signal will emerge from the internal climate variability. For this purpose, we investigate the time of emergence (ToE) of the hemispheric and regional shift of northern subtropical margins in the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble. For several indicators, the ToE of the poleward shift of Northern subtropical margin will not occur by the end of the 21st century, neither at regional nor at hemispheric scale. The exceptions are the Mediterranean/Middle East and, to a lesser degree, Western Pacific, where the ToE would occur earlier. According to our results, given the fundamental role played by internal variability, trends of Northern Hemisphere subtropical poleward shift that have been identified over last decades in reanalyses cannot be considered as robust signals of anthropogenic climate change. ©2020. The Authors.