Predicting regime changes and durations in Lorenz's atmospheric convection model

Brugnago, Eduardo L.; Gallas, Jason A. C.; Beims, Marcus W.

doi:10.1063/5.0013253

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Predicting regime changes and durations in Lorenz's atmospheric convection model

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Gallas, Jason A. C.
Max Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems, Max Planck Society;

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Beims, Marcus W.
Max Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems, Max Planck Society;

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引用

Brugnago, E. L., Gallas, J. A. C., & Beims, M. W. (2020). Predicting regime changes and durations in Lorenz's atmospheric convection model. Chaos, 30(10):. doi:10.1063/5.0013253.

引用: https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0007-DF73-D

要旨

We show that a characteristic alignment between Lyapunov vectors can be used to predict regime changes as well as regime duration in the classical Lorenz model of atmospheric convection. By combining Lyapunov vector alignment with maxima in the local expansion of bred vectors, we obtain an effective and competitive method to significantly decrease errors in the prediction of regime durations.