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Abstract

We present constraints on the emergence and evolution of passive galaxies with the empirical model emerge, which reproduces the evolution of stellar mass functions (SMFs), specific and cosmic star formation rates since z ≈ 10, ‘quenched’ galaxy fractions, and correlation functions. At fixed halo mass, present-day passive galaxies are more massive than active galaxies, whereas at fixed stellar mass passive galaxies populate more massive haloes in agreement with observations. This effect naturally results from the shape and scatter of the stellar-to-halo mass relation. The stellar mass assembly of present-day passive galaxies is dominated by ‘in situ’ star formation below ∼3 × 10¹¹ M_⊙ and by merging and accretion of ‘ex situ’ formed stars at higher mass. The mass dependence is in tension with current cosmological simulations. Lower mass passive galaxies show extended star formation towards low redshift in agreement with IFU surveys. All passive galaxies have main progenitors on the ‘main sequence of star formation’ with the ‘red sequence’ appearing at z ≈ 2. Above this redshift, over 95 per cent of the progenitors of passive galaxies are active. More than 90 per cent of z ≈ 2 ‘main sequence’ galaxies with m_* > 10¹⁰ M_⊙ evolve into present-day passive galaxies. Above redshift 6, more than 80 per cent of the observed SMFs above 10⁹ M_⊙ can be accounted for by progenitors of passive galaxies with m_* > 10¹⁰ M_⊙. This implies that high-redshift observations mainly probe the birth of present-day passive galaxies. emerge is available at github.com/bmoster/emerge.