Possible climatic effects of contrails and additional water vapour

Grassl, H.

doi:10.1007/978-3-642-51686-3_8

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Possible climatic effects of contrails and additional water vapour

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引用

Grassl, H. (1990). Possible climatic effects of contrails and additional water vapour. In U., Schumann (Ed.), Air Traffic and the Environment — Background, Tendencies and Potential Global Atmospheric Effects: Proceedings of a DLR International Colloquium, Bonn, Germany, November 15/16, 1990 (pp. 124-137). Heidelberg: Springer.

引用: https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000A-25C5-E

要旨

The importance of contrails in the upper troposphere and of additional water vapour in the lower stratosphere, both the result of aircraft emissions, for the radiation budget of the surface/atmosphere system is roughly assessed. The radiation flux density profiles with contrails and additional water vapour are compared to other greenhouse gas forcings. This leads to a very first order of magnitude estimate of the air traffic climate forcing potential: two percent contrail cover or air traffic induced natural cirrus may be as important for the planetary radiation budget as a 10 percent increase of present anthropogenic CO2 forcing, equivalent to six years emission of 25 Gigatons CO2 per year; additional water vapour in the lowest high northern latitude stratosphere is considerably contributing to the greenhouse effect of the atmosphere. If air traffic would cause a 10 percent increase in water vapour there this would be equivalent to up to 0.2 Wm-2 radiation budget change depending on surface temperature.