Structural Shocks and Political Participation in the US

Chugunova, Marina; Keller, Klaus; Samila, Sampsa

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Structural Shocks and Political Participation in the US

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Chugunova, Marina
MPI for Innovation and Competition, Max Planck Society;

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Keller, Klaus
MPI for Innovation and Competition, Max Planck Society;

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http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3929377
(Preprint)

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Citation

Chugunova, M., Keller, K., & Samila, S. (2021). Structural Shocks and Political Participation in the US. Max Planck Institute for Innovation & Competition Research Paper, No. 21-22.

Cite as: https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0009-5647-7

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of the large structural shocks – automation
and import competition – on voter turnout during US federal elections from 2000
to 2016. Although the negative income eﬀect of both shocks is comparable, we
ﬁnd that political participation decreases signiﬁcantly in counties more exposed to
industrial robots. In contrast, the exposure to rising import competition does not
reduce voter turnout. A survey experiment reveals that divergent beliefs about the
eﬀectiveness of government intervention drive this contrast. Our study highlights
the role of beliefs in the political economy of technological change.