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Journal Article

Interplay Between Risk Perception, Behavior, and COVID-19 Spread

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Dönges,  Philipp
Max Planck Research Group Neural Systems Theory, Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Max Planck Society;

/persons/resource/persons269881

Wagner,  Joel
Max Planck Research Group Neural Systems Theory, Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Max Planck Society;

/persons/resource/persons250710

Contreras,  Sebastian
Max Planck Research Group Neural Systems Theory, Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Max Planck Society;

/persons/resource/persons264162

Iftekhar,  Emil N.
Max Planck Research Group Neural Systems Theory, Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Max Planck Society;

/persons/resource/persons264164

Bauer,  Simon
Max Planck Research Group Neural Systems Theory, Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Max Planck Society;

/persons/resource/persons250716

Mohr,  Sebastian B.
Max Planck Research Group Neural Systems Theory, Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Max Planck Society;

/persons/resource/persons227696

Dehning,  Jonas
Max Planck Research Group Neural Systems Theory, Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Max Planck Society;

/persons/resource/persons173619

Priesemann,  Viola
Max Planck Research Group Neural Systems Theory, Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Max Planck Society;

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Citation

Dönges, P., Wagner, J., Contreras, S., Iftekhar, E. N., Bauer, S., Mohr, S. B., et al. (2022). Interplay Between Risk Perception, Behavior, and COVID-19 Spread. Frontiers in Physics, 10: 842180. doi:10.3389/fphy.2022.842180.


Cite as: https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000A-07B4-3
Abstract
Pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been crucial for
controlling COVID-19. They are complemented by voluntary health-protective behavior,
building a complex interplay between risk perception, behavior, and disease spread. We
studied how voluntary health-protective behavior and vaccination willingness impact the
long-term dynamics. We analyzed how different levels of mandatory NPIs determine how
individuals use their leeway for voluntary actions. If mandatory NPIs are too weak, COVID-
19 incidence will surge, implying high morbidity and mortality before individuals react; if
they are too strong, one expects a rebound wave once restrictions are lifted, challenging
the transition to endemicity. Conversely, moderate mandatory NPIs give individuals time
and room to adapt their level of caution, mitigating disease spread effectively. When
complemented with high vaccination rates, this also offers a robust way to limit the impacts
of the Omicron variant of concern. Altogether, our work highlights the importance of
appropriate mandatory NPIs to maximise the impact of individual voluntary actions in
pandemic control.