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Conference Paper

Storm tracking and ensemble prediction

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Bengtsson,  Lennart
External Organizations;
External Author, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

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Citation

Froude, L. S. R., Bengtsson, L., & Hodges, K. I. (2007). Storm tracking and ensemble prediction. In A. Tsonis, & J. Elsner (Eds.), Nonlinear Dynamics in Geoscience (pp. 101-119).


Cite as: https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000D-04FD-2
Abstract
The prediction of extratropical cyclones by the European Centre for
Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the National Centers for
Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) is
investigated using a storm-tracking forecast verification methodology.
The cyclones are identified and tracked along the forecast trajectories
so that statistics can be generated to determine the rate at which the
position and intensity of the forecast cyclones diverge from the
corresponding analysed cyclones with forecast time. Overall the ECMWF
EPS has a slightly higher level of performance than the NCEP EPS.
However, in the southern hemisphere the NCEP EPS has a slightly higher
level of skill for the intensity of the storms. The results from both
EPS indicate a higher level of predictive skill for the position of
extratropical cyclones than their intensity and show that there is a
larger spread in intensity than position. The results also illustrate
several benefits an EPS can offer over a deterministic forecast.