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Journal Article

A two-tiered approach to long-range climate forecasting

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/persons/resource/persons37102

Bengtsson,  Lennart
MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

Schlese,  Ulrich
MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

/persons/resource/persons37308

Roeckner,  Erich
MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

/persons/resource/persons37231

Latif,  Mojib
MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

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Citation

Bengtsson, L., Schlese, U., Roeckner, E., Latif, M., Barnett, T., & Graham, N. (1993). A two-tiered approach to long-range climate forecasting. Science, 261(5124), 1028-1029. doi:10.1126/science.261.5124.1026.


Cite as: https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000B-1B55-8
Abstract
Long-range global climate forecasts were made by use of a model for predicting a tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST) in tandem with an atmospheric general circulation model. The SST is predicted first at long lead times into the future. These ocean forecasts are then used to force the atmospheric model and so produce climate forecasts at lead times of the SST forecasts. Prediction of seven large climatic events of the 1970s to 1990s by this technique are in good agreement with observations over many regions of the globe.