Research progress of forest fires spread trend forecasting in Heilongjiang 
Province

Wang, Xiaoxue; Wang, Chengwei; Zhao, Guangna; Ding, Hairu; Yu, Min

doi:10.3390/atmos13122110

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Research progress of forest fires spread trend forecasting in Heilongjiang Province

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Ding, Hairu
Global Circulation and Climate, The Atmosphere in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;
IMPRS on Earth System Modelling, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

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Citation

Wang, X., Wang, C., Zhao, G., Ding, H., & Yu, M. (2022). Research progress of forest fires spread trend forecasting in Heilongjiang Province. Atmosphere, 13: 2110. doi:10.3390/atmos13122110.

Cite as: https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000C-2070-1

Abstract

In order to further grasp the scientific method of forecasting the spreading trend of forest fires in Heilongjiang Province, which is located in Northeast China, the basic concepts of forest fires, a geographical overview of Heilongjiang Province, and an overview of forest fire forecasting are mainly introduced. The calculation and computer simulation of various forest fire spread models are reviewed, and the selected model for forest fires spread in Heilongjiang Province is mainly summarized. The research shows that the Wang Zhengfei-Mao Xianmin model has higher accuracy and is more suitable for the actual situation of Heilongjiang Province. However, few studies over the past three decades have updated the formula. Therefore, this empirical model is mainly analyzed in this paper. The nonlinear least squares method is used to re-fit the wind speed correction coefficient, which gets closer results to the actual values, and the Wang Zhengfei-Mao Xianmin model is rewritten and evaluated for a more precise formula. In addition, a brief overview of the commonly used Rothermel mathematical-physical model and the improved ellipse mathematical model is given, which provides a basis for the improvement of the forest fires spread model in Heilongjiang Province.