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Abstract

Coronal mass ejections are among the Sun's most energetic activity events yet the physical mechanisms that lead to their occurrence are not yet fully understood. They can drive major space weather impacts at Earth, so knowing why and when these ejections will occur is required for accurate space weather forecasts. In this study we use a 4 day time series of a quantity known as the helicity ratio, ∣H _J ∣/∣H _V ∣ (helicity of the current-carrying part of the active region field to the total relative magnetic helicity within the volume), which has been computed from nonlinear force-free field extrapolations of NOAA active region 11158. We compare the evolution of ∣H _J ∣/∣H _V ∣ with the activity produced in the corona of the active region and show this ratio can be used to indicate when the active region is prone to eruption. This occurs when ∣H _J ∣/∣H _V ∣ exceeds a value of 0.1, as suggested by previous studies. We find the helicity ratio variations to be more pronounced during times of strong flux emergence, collision and reconnection between fields of different bipoles, shearing motions, and reconfiguration of the corona through failed and successful eruptions. When flux emergence, collision, and shearing motions have lessened, the changes in helicity ratio are somewhat subtle despite the occurrence of significant eruptive activity during this time.