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Journal Article

Spring regional sea surface temperatures as a precursor of European summer heatwaves

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Beobide-Arsuaga,  Goratz
IMPRS on Earth System Modelling, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;
Institute of Oceanography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany; International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling, Hamburg, Germany; Department of Geography, Maynooth University, ICARUS, Maynooth, Ireland; Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Ocean in the Earth System, Hamburg, Germany; Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States;

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Müller,  Wolfgang A.
Earth System Modeling and Predictions, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

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GRL_Beobide‐Arsuaga_2023.pdf
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Citation

Beobide-Arsuaga, G., Düsterhus, A., Müller, W. A., Barnes, E., & Baehr, J. (2023). Spring regional sea surface temperatures as a precursor of European summer heatwaves. Geophysical Research Letters, 50: e2022GL100727. doi:10.1029/2022GL100727.


Cite as: https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000C-9972-7
Abstract
Different spring and early summer North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) have been shown to precede recent European summer heatwaves (EuSHWs). So far, the limited number of observed events associated with several physical mechanisms has prevented a robust identification of SSTAs as precursors. Here, we extend beyond previous studies by combining 100 historical simulations (1850–2005) of the MPI Grand-Ensemble with an explainable neural-network method. We find that the spring tripolar North Atlantic pattern with positive SSTAs in the Subtropical Gyre is a precursor of EuSHWs. In addition, positive SSTAs west of the Iberian Peninsula, and in the North Sea, the Baltic Sea and the Mediterranean Sea relate to distinct early summer soil moisture anomaly patterns and are precursors of western and southeastern EuSHWs, respectively. While the phase of the tripolar North Atlantic pattern indicates whether a EuSHW might emerge, regional SSTAs indicate the spatial characteristics of EuSHWs. © 2023. The Authors.