Remotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales

Lenton, Timothy M.; Abrams, Jesse F.; Bartsch, Annett; Bathiany, Sebastian; Boulton, Chris A.; Buxton, Joshua E.; Conversi, Alessandra; Cunliffe, Andrew M.; Hebden, Sophie; Lavergne, Thomas; Poulter, Benjamin; Shepherd, Andrew; Smith, Taylor; Swingedouw, Didier; Winkelmann, Ricarda; Boers, Niklas

doi:10.1038/s41467-023-44609-w

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Remotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales

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Winkelmann, Ricarda
external, Max Planck Institute of Geoanthropology, Max Planck Society;

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MODIS data from NASA
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HadISST data from the Met Office
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AVHRR NDVI data from USGS
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Sentinel-2 data from Copernicus
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ERA5 precipitation data from Copernicus
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Citation

Lenton, T. M., Abrams, J. F., Bartsch, A., Bathiany, S., Boulton, C. A., Buxton, J. E., et al. (2024). Remotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales. Nature Communications, 15(1): 343. doi:10.1038/s41467-023-44609-w.

Cite as: https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000F-618E-4

Abstract

Potential climate tipping points pose a growing risk for societies, and policy is calling for improved anticipation of them. Satellite remote sensing can play a unique role in identifying and anticipating tipping phenomena across scales. Where satellite records are too short for temporal early warning of tipping points, complementary spatial indicators can leverage the exceptional spatial-temporal coverage of remotely sensed data to detect changing resilience of vulnerable systems. Combining Earth observation with Earth system models can improve process-based understanding of tipping points, their interactions, and potential tipping cascades. Such fine-resolution sensing can support climate tipping point risk management across scales.